Orange County Housing Report: January

Orange County Housing Market Summary: January

Buyers may be rooting for an easier market with less competition, fewer competing offers, and a gentler rise in values, but that would come at the expense of higher rates and higher monthly payments. For a $700,000 mortgage at last year’s 3.6% fixed rate, the payment would have been $3,183 per month. With today’s 2.77% rate, the payment drops to $2,865, a $318 per month savings, essentially a 10% discount. It's too good to pass up!

• The active listing inventory decreased by 6 homes in the past two-weeks, nearly unchanged, and now totals 2,627, its lowest January level since tracking began in 2004. COVID-19 is not suppressing the inventory despite the surge in cases. In December, there were 27% more homes that came on the market compared to the prior 5-year average. Last year, there were 4,023 homes on the market, 1,396 additional homes, or 53% more.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 160 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 8%, and now totals 2,055, its strongest January level since 2013. COVID-19 has no effect on demand. Record low rates are fueling today’s exceptional demand. Last year, there were 1,702 pending sales, 17% fewer than today.
• The Expected Market Time, the number of months to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 42 days to 38, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days).  It is the strongest reading to a January since tracking began in 2004. It was at 71 days last year, much slower than today.  
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an Expected Market Time of 29 days. This range represents 33% of the active inventory and 44% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 25 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 26 days, a Hot Seller’s Market.
• For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time is 49 days, a Hot Seller’s Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 55 to 56 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 124 to 83 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 373 to 220 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.5 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 16% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.3% of all listings and 0.4% of demand. There are only 4 foreclosures and 4 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 8 total distressed homes on the active market, down 1 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 44 total distressed homes on the market, more than today.
• There were 3,091 closed residential resales in December, 25% more than December 2019’s 2,469 closed sales. December marked a 9% increase compared to November 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 98.7% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.2% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.3%. That means that 99.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.