Orange County Housing Report: September
Orange County Housing Summary: September
The Autumn Market is here. That is when the overall market downshifts with a drop in both supply and demand. It is just not as an advantageous time of the year for families to make a move when the kids go back to school, so both supply and demand downshift.
- The active listing inventory decreased by 39 homes in the past two-weeks, down 1%, and now totals 4,213, its lowest level for September since tracking began in 2004. COVID-19 is not suppressing the inventory and in the past four-weeks, there were 20% more homes that came on the market compared to last year. This could be the beginning of a new trend. Last year, there were 6,860 homes on the market, 2,647 additional homes, or 63% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 84 pending sales in the past two-weeks, down 3%, and now totals 3,256. It appears as if demand peaked two weeks ago. COVID-19 currently has no effect on demand. Last year, there were 2,401 pending sales, 26% fewer than today.
- The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 38 days to 39, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 86 days last year, much slower than today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 27 days. This range represents 33% of the active inventory and 48% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 28 days, a hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 44 days, a hot Seller’s Market.
- For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 49 to 47 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 58 to 63 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 97 to 106 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 222 to 234 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 38% of the inventory and only 18% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.3% of all listings and 0.5% of demand. There are only 5 foreclosures and 9 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 14 total distressed homes on the active market, up 1 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 53 total distressed homes on the market, more than today.There were 3,153 closed residential resales in August, 12% more than August 2019’s 2,823 closed sales. August marked a 5% increase compared to July 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 98.8% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.2% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.2%. That means that 99.6% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.